Over-the-counter (OTC) desks are where institutions go to buy Bitcoin without moving the market. But the amount of BTC held by these desks is shrinking fast.
This article answers one question: How much OTC Bitcoin is left?
Using on-chain data from Glassnode and CryptoQuant, we break down the current balance, why it’s falling, and what happens when it runs out.
Bitcoin: Total OTC Desk Balance | Source: Cryptoquant
What the Number Means
The figure represents the total Bitcoin held in wallets associated with over-the-counter (OTC) broker desks — firms that facilitate large private trades outside of public exchanges.
These balances are tracked using on-chain data and give a rough sense of how much BTC is available for big, off-market deals.
But the number isn’t complete. It only includes wallets that analysts have been able to confidently label as belonging to OTC desks.
Many desks use custodians or off-chain settlement methods that don’t show up in wallet trackers.
So while the figure is directionally useful, it doesn’t capture the full picture of OTC liquidity.
Latest Data & Trend
As of February 10, 2025, the total Bitcoin held on known OTC desk wallets stands at approximately 146,000 BTC, according to on-chain monitoring platforms like Glassnode and CryptoQuant.
Bitcoin OTC Desks: Sell-Side Liquidity Inventory | Source: CryptoQuant
This aligns with recent analysis flagged by CryptoRank, which echoed:
“ONLY 140K BTC left across all OTC desks.”
That figure marks a steep decline from peak levels. In early 2021, OTC desks collectively held around 480,000 BTC.
Over the past four years, that number has steadily dropped, falling by more than 70%.
The trend is unmistakable: OTC inventories are shrinking, and the available supply for private, large-scale deals is drying up fast.
Why Is It Shrinking?
Institutional Accumulation
Over the past few years, institutions have taken a growing interest in Bitcoin.
They often prefer OTC desks for large purchases to avoid slippage on public exchanges.
These buyers—including hedge funds, insurance companies, and corporate treasuries—tend to move coins into long-term cold storage, permanently reducing the circulating OTC supply.
Major purchases by companies like MicroStrategy, or allocations by funds like Fidelity and BlackRock, typically go through OTC channels first, then disappear into vaults.
ETF Demand
The launch of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs has added a powerful new force to the demand side.
These ETFs require actual BTC backing, and providers often acquire that inventory via OTC desks to minimize market disruption.
As retail and institutional capital pours into these ETFs, the fund managers must keep sourcing fresh BTC, draining known OTC wallets as part of the process.
Changing Miner Behavior
BTC Harsh Ribbons | Source: CryptoQuant
Miners, once a key supplier to OTC desks, are shifting their behavior.
A growing number of miners are now sending newly mined coins directly to exchanges, particularly during bullish momentum — to maximize profits and liquidity.
This change reduces the flow of “virgin” coins into OTC circulation, which are often preferred by institutional buyers for regulatory or compliance reasons.
A critical signal to watch in this context is the Hash Ribbons indicator.
This metric, which evaluates the health of Bitcoin’s mining ecosystem by tracking fluctuations in hash rate, has historically been a reliable predictor of market movements.
Every time the Hash Ribbons have flashed in the past, Bitcoin has seen a rally. The exception was during the COVID-19 market shock, an unprecedented event that temporarily distorted the signal.
As the Hash Ribbons are flashing again, it suggests a potential shift in mining dynamics, which could have a cascading effect on Bitcoin’s availability for OTC transactions. a signal that could foreshadow future market moves.
The Implications
There are some implications that come with Bitcoin OTC:
The Risk of a Supply Squeeze
If OTC desk balances continue to decline — or reach zero — the ability to quietly execute large Bitcoin purchases could vanish.
Without OTC inventory, institutions and high-net-worth buyers would be forced to source coins directly from public exchanges.
That shift would make large trades far more visible and market-moving.
A single multi-million dollar buy order could push prices up dramatically, especially in a low-liquidity environment.
Rising Spot Market Pressure
OTC markets act as a pressure valve for Bitcoin demand. When that valve closes, demand spills over into spot markets, amplifying volatility and upward price momentum.
In that context, shrinking OTC reserves aren’t just a supply-side curiosity — they’re a potential trigger for the next leg up in Bitcoin’s price cycle.
Methodology & Sources
The OTC Bitcoin trading balance is calculated using on-chain analytics platforms that monitor wallet activity linked to known OTC desks.
The data reflects coins held in wallets that have been identified and labeled through blockchain forensics.
Sources used:
- Glassnode: Tracks the “Balance of Known OTC Desks” using wallet clustering and on-chain labeling.
- CryptoQuant: Provides real-time dashboards tracking OTC-related wallet movements and holdings.
- CryptoRank: Aggregates insights from analysts and on-chain data, including public commentary on OTC liquidity trends.
Note: These figures only include OTC desks whose wallet addresses are publicly known or inferred. Balances held by unidentified desks, custodians, or in cold storage are not included.
